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NATO May Not Back Turkey in a War With Russia…DUE TO FEAR OF RUSSIA


The Shoot down of the Su-24 was not about an airspace violation. Discussion about how many seconds the Russian Jet was inside Turkish Airspace, or how many warnings the Turkish military gave the Jet are largely irrelevant. In 2012, Turkish president Erdogan himself said, that brief airspace violations can’t be a pretext for attack. Turkey violated Greek airspace over 2000 times last year. US president, Obama hinted the real agenda behind Turkey was to protect Al-Qaeda linked Turkman insurgents in Syria, but this is also a secondary objective. The real agenda behind shooting down the jet is challenging Russia’s resolve on Syria and testing its position as a superpower on the world stage. This agenda belongs the US and not Turkey. A Challenge of Russia’s strength must be met in a way which would send a clear message to the West, that it is no longer a unipolar world and Russia is here to stay.

Russian Retaliation

To emphasise the importance of meeting a test of resolve, the wider implication of a “do nothing” response must be understood. While it’s tempting to dismiss the attack on an Su-24 (and later, a Mi-24helicopter) as an isolated incident that is not worth escalating over, such an attack is usually only the first of a series of attacks. A decision not to strike back implies weakness and lack of resolve, which invites further attacks in future.

So far Russia has kept its retaliation in the economic and political spheres, placing Turkey under comprehensive sanctions. The political retaliation was also swift and strong. The Russian Embassy in Turkey was shut down signaled the end of relations between the two countries. The words coming out of the Russian government were equally strong, pointing Turkish President Erdogan out as a supporter of terrorism and a financier of ISIS.

But economic and political warfare could be a lead up to future military action. The installment of the Russian S-400 Anti-Air missiles in Syria, has effectively created a no-fly zone over Turkey. Turkey hasgrounded its air force for fear of retaliatory strikes from the the S-400. Russia has also begun striking at insurgent supply lines directly on the Turkey-Syria border crossing. Russia’s decision to speak openly about Turkey’s support of terrorist groups in Syria, could be establish a grounds for future to attacks against Terrorist targets within Turkish Territory.

With such grave possibilities, why would Turkey carry out such an attack? Turkey may have been gambled that Russia would not retaliate militarily, assuming that threatening to close the Bosphorus strait, and having NATO backing would be enough of a deterrent. But Can NATO backing be relied upon?

NATO May Not Back Turkey in a War With Russia.

Over a month before the attack, NATO’s Secretary General Jen Stoltenberg made strong statementspromising that NATO would defend Turkey against any threats. These statements were made after Russia passed through Turkish Airspace on its way to bomb targets in Syria. However, In  the wake of the Shoot down of the Jet Stoltenberg statements were far weaker and non-committal. When asked directly if NATO would step in to defend Turkey if Russia


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